kfn

"Agricultural commodities have been hurt in the recent turmoil," says growth stock expert Stephen Leeb. In The Complete Investor he looks at Mosaic (NYSE: MOS). a world leader in fertilizers.

"Mosaic has been decimated in price despite reporting record earnings. The company is the world's second-biggest producer of fertilizer components and the leading producer of potash.

"It's also the largest maker of processed phosphates, which gives it a lot of leverage to the rapidly growing markets of China and Brazil, and is an exclusive marketer of 1.2 million metric tons of nitrogen products.

"Since its high in June, the stock has lost three-fourths of its value and now trades at just 3 times next year's earnings. The sell-off came despite Mosaic's highest-ever earnings ($2.65 in the latest quarter vs. $0.69 a year earlier) and expanding gross margins (38.1% vs. 26%).

"The apparent reason was that those record earnings were slightly below some analyst estimates. Also, investors perhaps feared that farmers wouldn't be able to obtain credit to buy fertilizers.

"Once all the added liquidity puts these fears to rest, and given that the worldwide inventory of soybeans, corn, and wheat is forecasted to keep declining into 2009, we think demand for Mosaic's products will be strong.

"Long-term investors should use any temporary softness in fertilizer component prices as a great buying opportunity for Mosaic's shares."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

"Investors should keep a defensive posture," says Richard Moroney. However, the editor of the blue chip advisory service, Dow Theory Forecasts, see opportunity in two drug stocks that he has just added to his buy list.

"In general, we prefer to let the market's action signal that the point of maximum pessimism has passed before deploying our cash reserves. But we intend to remain engaged, looking for stocks capable of bucking the bearish trend.

"Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) produces biotechnology drugs that treat non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and multiple sclerosis. Per-share profits jumped 69% and operating cash flow surged 71% in the September quarter.

"Wall Street expects per-share-profit growth of 9% in 2009 and 7% in 2010, but good news on Biogen's most-promising drug could render those targets conservative.

"At 12 times estimated 2009 earnings, Biogen shares are the cheapest of the six largest U.S. biotech stocks. Biogen is being initiated as a Focus List Buy and a Long-Term Buy.

"AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) is being added to the Buy List. The British drugmaker offers an intriguing blend of value and growth potential. A study released this month showed that the company's cholesterol drug Crestor reduced the risk of various heart problems by 44%.

"The study could potentially expand Crestor's addressable market to include millions of new patients, though AstraZeneca is soft-pedaling the potential benefits. AstraZeneca, which earns a Quadrix Overall score of 94 and yields 4.5%, is being added to the Buy List."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

"While many firms are struggling to survive, a lucky minority are built to weather the storm better," says growth stock specialist Karim Rahemtulla. In Xcelerated Profits Report, he eyes Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST).

"Thanks to rising inflation and unemployment, coupled with a beaten-up economy, many retailers are braced for a harsh new reality this holiday season.

"Consumers have much tighter budgets and are cutting back on whatever they can. And that's where some 'one-stop' retailers like Costco can really take advantage.

"Although customers are more likely to avoid the electronics and other non-necessity stocking sections of the store these days, they still need to eat.

"So while other non-food departments are seeing a sales slowdown, Goldman Sachs recently reported that Costco is likely to enjoy strong food sales, which offset that.

"Goldman also noted that Costco boasts a strong balance sheet, with almost $3.3 billion in cash on the books, plus ample liquidity - factors that could encourage management to implement a stock buyback program.

"Compared to other retailers who are flat-out dreading this holiday season, that puts Costco in a strong position.

"And because the store has such a diverse range of products, all under one roof and available at bargain prices, Costco is one firm better prepared to ride out what could be a brutal season for retailers."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

"Gold is now looking stronger; it is time that investors have gold in their portfolios," says Curtis Hesler. In the The Professional Timing Service, he looks at gold's seasonal patterns.

"I think they will rush to commodity-based assets because of the serious underinvestment phase the commodity sector is involved in now. This will lead to shortages and very high prices down the road in all commodities.

"Once the dollar begins to roll over, gold will be an instant benefactor. It is already looking stronger in my technical work, and it is time that investors should have gold in their portfolios. I still recommend that you put new money into the major gold miners only.

"We are approaching an interesting seasonal period for gold. Years ago, the Stock Trader's Almanac used to specify a seasonal trade in gold.

"Their study showed that if you bought ASA Ltd. (NYSE: ASA) at its low in November and sold it at its high in the first quarter of the next year, you would have averaged a gain of 87.8%.

"The medical arena has long been my favorite sectors; perhaps the best opportunities within the medical sector will be with companies who provide life-saving products for the treatment of serious diseases," says Dave Dyer.

In The Dave Dyer Newsletter, he explains, "That is why Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) is an excellent choice in this economy." Here's his look at this "recession-resistant" company.

"Celgene is a multinational biopharmaceutical company with a $29 billion market cap and no debt. Revlimid is their blockbuster drug with multi-billion dollar potential. It was first approved by the FDA in 2005, and it has many good years of patent protection ahead of it.

"Revlimid delays the onset of progression of deadly diseases -- leprosy and multiple myeloma. No wonder it is worth $6,000 per month. It is a close derivative of their other drug Thalomid. This drug was used by another company about 50 years ago to treat morning sickness in pregnant women and caused numerous birth defects.

"Despite a recession, we believe that demand for its products will remain strong. For example, if you have multiple myeloma, you would probably do just about anything before missing a payment for your monthly dose of Revlimid.

"Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is offering a rare opportunity and is now one of our favorite ideas for investors with a multi-year time horizon," says Bill Martin.

In his BullMarket.com, the trading and investing expert explains, "Our bullish thesis on Apple revolves around cash; both the cash on its balance sheet and the cash it is able to generate."

"With approximately $24.5 billion in cash and no debt, about $27.50 of Apple's share price is cash. Meanwhile, the company generated $9.1 billion in cash the past fiscal year.

"Given the way revenue with the iPhone is reported (it's recognized over the life of a contract, not upfront), the cash Apple generates is actually a lot higher than what its earnings indicate.

"Combined, this makes common metrics like P/E ratios not a great way to value the company. If you instead substitute an Enterprise Value (which is basically the market cap with net debt or cash added back in) to cash flow ratio, the stock is trading at only about a 6x multiple.

"If you're going to stay invested, you should look to defensive sectors," explain Ron Rowland and Brandon Clay, who point to consumer staples as a top pick for the current market environment.

In their Invest with an Edge, the advisors explain, "Perhaps the best way to stay defensive is with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP), an exchange traded fund.

"In a bear market, opportunities are usually limited to certain sectors. Surveying the investment horizon, we think the consumer staples sector has the best opportunity for growth in this economy.

"Regardless how the economy acts, people still eat. Consumers may not shop at Whole Foods, but they'll still buy groceries. Companies like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) will continue to rake in revenues from hungry customers.

"In addition, these companies should continue to receive additional revenue from consumers who normally shop at specialty stores, but can no longer afford to.

"Consumers may not be shopping at Sharper Image any more, but there are other creature comforts that will be difficult for Americans to abandon.

"Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) will still sell products during a prolonged downturn. In addition, companies providing toiletries and convenience like Procter and Gamble and CVS Pharmacy stand to do well during a shifty economy.

"There are signs that the credit logjam that's frozen markets around the world in recent weeks may be breaking," states global expert Keith Fitz-Gerald. In his Money Map Reporter, he suggests that investors begin scaling in to new positions in Templeton Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE: EMF).

The advisor explains, "Assuming historical relationships remain true, Asian markets, followed by South American and European markets -- in that order -- have the most to gain coming out of this crisis.

"The other thing that history shows is that deep corrections tend to turn out to have been spectacular buying opportunities in retrospect, particularly when the credit markets that drive them relax. This is usually about six months prior to recognized recoveries.

"Templeton Emerging Markets Fund is trading at a 12% discount to net asset value and offers a 16.9% yield. Fully 58.2% of its assets are concentrated in and around the Asian region, which is running the highest cash reserves as a percentage of GDP on the planet.

"We plan to scale into a position in Templeton Emerging Markets Fund over the next few months. This not only keeps our overall risk down, but it helps us average in cost effectively."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

"Among contrarians, one advisors stands out among all others: David Dreman," notes John Reese, editor of the Validea newsletter.

His advisory service selects stocks based on the strategies of time-tested investors, he reviews Dreman's approach and offers one stock that matches the contrarian's investment profile -- specialty metals firm, Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI).

"Dreman, perhaps more than any other guru I follow, is a student of investor psychology. And at the core of his research is the belief that investors tend to overvalue the 'best' stocks -- those 'hot' stocks everyone seems to be buying -- and undervalue the 'worst' stocks -- those that people are avoiding like the plague.

"In addition, he also believed that the market was driven largely by how investors reacted to 'surprises', frequent events that include earnings reports that exceed or fall short of expectations, government actions, or news about new products.

"And, he believed that analysts were more often than not wrong about their earnings forecasts, which leads to a lot of these surprises. By taking a contrarian approach -- i.e. targeting out-of-favor stocks and avoiding in-favor stocks -- Dreman found you could make a killing.

"To find out-of-favor potential turnarounds, he compared a stock's price to four fundamentals: earnings, cash flow, book value, and dividend yield. Because Dreman took advantage of the overreactions of others, he found that one of the best times to invest was during a crisis.

"Allegheny Technologies is a diversified specialty metals producer; its metals are selected for use in environments that demand metals having hardness, toughness, strength, resistance to heat, corrosion or abrasion, or a combination of these characteristics.

"China places high value on education, making New Oriental Education & Technology Group (NYSE: EDU) somewhat defensive in a growth-stunted economy," says Chris Rowe. (Incidentally, we reviewed two U.S. education stocks in a post yesterday.)

Meanwhile, in The Tycoon Report, Rowe explains, "We believe a slowing global economy will have minimal impact on the education sector in China." Here's his review of this firm, which operates English language schools.

"New Oriental Education is a rapidly growing company that provides private educational services to over 1.3 million students via 207 school centers, primarily in the People's Republic of China. They help privately prepare Chinese for admission tests to foreign universities emphasizing English.

"It offers its program, service, and products in six areas: language training; test preparation; primary and secondary school; educational content, software, and other technology development and distribution; online education; and other services and products.

"I consider the stock to be somewhat defensive in a growth-stunted economy. And while you may be able to make large short-term profits on this stocks, the goal in this recommendation is to be very long-term holders.

Few stocks are poised to benefit from economic woes and rising unemployment. One group, however, that appears to be an exception is for-profit adult education stocks.

These companies, which operate school campuses and online education programs, are viewed by some as beneficiaries of a growing need for worker retraining and the rising demand for education by those changing careers or re-entering the work force as adults.

Leo Fasciocco is a technical expert, specializing in finding stocks that are "breaking out" -- those moving above previous technical resistance levels or poised to do so.

His two of the latest breakout stocks featured in his The Ticker Tape Digest are both in the for-profit education field: Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) and Devry Inc. (NYSE: DV). Here's his assessment.

"Apollo, based in Phoenix, is the largest for-profit education company, with more than 300,000 students. APOL focuses on working adults and operates 259 campuses and learning centers in 40 states, as well as various international locations.

"Programs range from associate to doctorate degrees in areas such as business, education, health care, technology. The company said it is showing solid enrollment growth. Annual revenues are $3 billion.

"The company recently reported that net for the fiscal fourth quarter excluding special items increased 20% to 75 cents a share from 62 cents a year ago. Revenues for the quarter rose 17%. Analysts had expected net of just 64 cents a share. So, results were a positive surprise.

"For fiscal 2009 ending August 31, analysts predict a 17% increase in net to $3.31 a share from $2.84 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20, which is reasonable.

"Institutional sponsorship is very good. Five-star rated Janus Mid Cap Value Fund was a recent buyer of 550,000 shares. Also, 4-star rated GMO US Quality Equity III Fund recently picked up 779,000 shares.

"Devry, based in Oakbrook Terrace, Il., is one of the largest for-profit education companies, with annual revenues of $1.1 billion. DeVry University offers undergraduate and graduate programs in business and technology fields. They account for 77% of revenue.

"Under its health-care segment, Ross University offers medical and veterinarian programs, and Chamberlain College offers nursing degrees.

"Recently acquired schools add allied health programs. Its professional segment offers review courses through its Becker CPA review and Stalla CFA review programs.

"DV's technicals set up surprisingly well. The momentum indicator is strongly bullish. Recent price action shows good institutional buying interest. However, investors should be patient with this stock; we are looking for a key breakout over 58.50 before entering.

"The company tends to show consistently good earnings growth. This fiscal year ending June 30, analysts predict a 22% increase in net to $2.18 a share from $1.78 a year ago.

"The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 23, which is reasonable given the earnings growth rate. Looking out to fiscal 2010, the Street projects a 24% gain in net to $2.69 a share.

"The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Baron Growth Fund with a big 5.2% stake. It has held its position steady. A recent large buyer was 5-star rated Hartford Midcap Fund, which purchased 385,000 shares.

"Over the past 2 years shows, DV's stock has appreciated 120%. That easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which declined 25% over the same time. Recent price action shows good institutional buying interest.

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

"Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) is in the sweet spot," says Steve Sjuggerud in Daily Wealth. He says, "It borrows money at a low interest rate and invests it at a higher rate -- and earns the 'spread'."

"The cost of money is historically low, and it's headed lower. Meanwhile, relative to the cost of money, the return on money is higher than it's ever been.

"The ultimate way trade on this historic discrepancy, for high-returns with very low risk, is through shares of companies like Annaly, which is now s now paying a 16% dividend.

"In the latest-reported quarter, the company borrowed money at 3.5%. (The credit markets have calmed down a bit, so its cost of borrowing should be even lower next quarter.)

"It invests the money in government-guaranteed bonds. You remember how the Treasury bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? It wiped out shareholders. But it explicitly guaranteed the bonds.

"In the latest-reported quarter, Annaly earned 5.6% interest on these risk-free bonds. Therefore, it earned a 2.1% spread. If the company uses seven times leverage, a 2.1% spread means a 14.7% return on its money.

"Analysts estimate the company will earn $2.50 per share next year. It pays out essentially all of its earnings in dividends. So that'll be a dividend yield of about 19%. This is ridiculous. An opportunity like this only appears during market turmoil like we're experiencing now.

"This is a historic moment. The difference between the cost of money and the return on money relative to that cost is at the most extreme levels I've seen in my career. Take advantage, and buy stocks like Annaly today."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

"Valuations for even the best-placed, most well-established companies in the energy space are sitting at levels unseen since the late 1990s when oil prices collapsed to around $10 per barrel," says energy sector specialist Elliott Gue.

Here, the editor of The Energy Strategist looks at Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), noting, "The firm active in just about every imaginable market and I regard the company as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business."

"It's clear that there's been some slowing in demand, and the credit crunch has had an impact on the fundamental business. But the reaction in the stock market over the past three months goes well beyond even a worst-case scenario.

"Bottom line: Many energy-related stocks are pricing in a severe recession and recent action in the broader markets is reminiscent of sentiment characteristically seen near market lows. The short-term outlook for the energy patch is much better now than it was during the bear market in 1998 and 2002.

"I regard Schlumberger as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business and, more broadly, international oil and gas drilling activity. I always pay close attention to what Schlumberger has to say in its conference calls and, as usual, this quarter's call was instructive.

"During times such as these, I like to focus on big companies with clean balance sheets that pay decent dividends," says Glenn Rogers.

Here, the contributing editor to Internet Wealth Builder reviews his current stock holdings for a trio of global favorites offering upside potential while still allowing investors to "sleep well at night."

"Diageo Plc (NYSE: DEO) is well down from my original recommended price but compared to the overall market they have performed respectably.

"Meanwhile, the company recently issued a statement confirming its previous guidance of profit growth of between 7% and 9% in 2008.

"The company reported that organic net sales grew 6% in the three months to Sept. 30 and that there has been no material change in the financial position of the group during the period. Buy, with a target of $90.

"I have owned Knightsbridge Tankers (NASDAQ: VLCCF) longer than any other in my portfolio and it has never failed to pay a hefty dividend. The stock is currently trading at $17.40, thus yielding an incredible 17.2% based on a quarterly dividend of 75c a share.

"Even in tough economic times, Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) should fair well thanks to its offering of non-cyclical goods," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

"Sara Lee is a leading producer of branded foods, beverages, and personal care products. Roughly 50% of sales are generated outside of the U.S. Leading brands include Ball Park, Hillshire Farm, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, State Fair, Earth Grains, and Senseo brand coffee products.

"Management launched a comprehensive restructuring plan in 2005 to focus on core products and maximize operating efficiencies. These actions yielded $218 million in annualized cost savings in fiscal 2008.

"Food commodity costs soared earlier this year. However, SLE has been able to pass costs to customers through price increases. Furthermore, it has benefited from growing volumes. Fiscal Q4 net sales grew 12.2% year-over-year to $3.5 billion.

"With its earnings announcement, management issued fiscal 2009 guidance. It expects net sales to grow 4-6% year-over-year to $13.7-14 billion and pro forma earnings to grow 8-18% to 90-98 cents per share.

"Since issuing guidance, economic conditions have deteriorated significantly. This could lead to increased trading down activity to lower-priced brands or private-label goods.

"Also, the strengthening dollar has turned the foreign exchange tailwind into a headwind. Yet food commodity and energy costs have fallen significantly, which could provide margin relief for the company."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.